NBA Draft: the question of the productive young man

With just over a month until the 2024 NBA Draft, everyone wants to find a diamond in the rough or feel more confident about players in a class that appears to be filled with uncertainty.

To this end, it has become increasingly popular to design statistical queries to identify NBA talent. In April, we published a post reviewing which players currently meet the threshold for the Productive Young Athlete query, which has a 78% “stick” rate and focuses on freshmen. Earlier this month, this was based on discussion on the Productive Sophomore Query, which has a 70% “adherence” rate and applies similar criteria to sophomores rather than freshmen.

With greater uncertainty regarding the “stick” rate among older prospects, such as upperclassmen, the Junior Productive Consultation (PJQ) applies similar criteria to third-year students rather than second- or first-year students.

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. The prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, given the impossibility of them reaching five seasons in the NBA.

There was 38 sophomores across all 12 college basketball seasons from 2010 to 2021 who played at least 40% of their team’s minutes, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +10, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four dunks in total. 65.79% (25/38) of those young people played more than five years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

The purpose of this query is to find youngsters with such impactful production that they have the potential to reliably predict NBA talent. Youngsters who meet this criteria are relied upon to play nearly the majority of their team’s minutes, meet a certain production threshold, and also meet a minimum athletic threshold throughout the season.

Below are the players who complied with the 2010-2021 Junior Productive Consultation and ended up “staying” in the NBA:

2010: Evan Turner, Jon Leuer and James Anderson

2011: Draymon Green

2012: CJ McCollum

2013: Victor Oladipo, Kelly Olynyk, Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott

2014: Delon Wright and Frank Kaminsky

2015: Taurus Prince, Willie Cauley-Stein, Anthony Gill, Justin Anderson and Gary Payton II

2016: No player who met the criteria was “stuck” in the NBA (one player qualified).

2017: No player who met the criteria was “stuck” in the NBA (one player qualified).

2018: Mikal Brides, Dean Wade and Keita Bates-Diop

2019: Brandon Clarke and Grant Williams

2020: Xavier Tillman and Luka Garza

2021: Neemias Queta and Jared Butler

2021-22 season

Four players met the criteria in 2021: Oscar Tshiebwe, David Roddy, EJ Liddell and Orlando Robinson.

Oscar Tshiebwe has played just 42 minutes for the Pacers this season, but he has dominated the G League. He averaged 16.4 points and 16.1 rebounds in 27.2 minutes per game this season for the Fort Wayne Mad Ants. The former Kentucky big man was named to the NBA G League All-Rookie Team last April.

Roddy averaged 6.7 points per game in 18 minutes per game for the Grizzlies during his rookie season, then averaged 23 minutes and 8.4 points per game last season for the Grizzlies before being traded to the Phoenix Suns in February. With more time and adjustments, Roddy hopes to contribute more to the Suns’ game plan next season.

Liddell was selected with the 41st overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft by the New Orleans Pelicans, but unfortunately suffered a torn ACL during a Summer League game prior to his rookie year. Liddell only played 23 minutes for the Pelicans in his second year, but averaged 17.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 0.6 steals on over 50% from the field in 26 G League games.

Robinson averaged 10.9 minutes per game and appeared in 67 games for the Miami Heat during his first two years in the league. The 7-footer out of Fresno State also appeared in nine G League games last season, averaging around 24 points, 12 rebounds, two assists, one steal and two blocks per game.

2022-23 season

Five players met the criteria in 2022: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Zach Edey, Jaylen Clark, Adama Sanogo and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

For starters, Jackson-Davis was an important part of the Warriors’ rotation this season. He appeared in 68 games for Golden State, starting 16 of those games and averaging 16.6 minutes per game played. Edey won the Naismith Award for the second consecutive year and led the Purdue Boilermakers to the championship game. He is currently projected to go in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft. It should be noted that he also met the criteria for the Second Year Productive Inquiry during the 2021-22 season, which has a 70 “stick” rate %.

After being selected by the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 53rd pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Clark has yet to appear in an NBA game after unfortunately rupturing his Achilles tendon at the end of UCLA’s season.

Sanogo appeared in nine games for the Bulls this season and averaged 7.3 minutes per game in those appearances. The former UConn player also played in 29 games for the Windy City Bulls, averaging 30.3 minutes, 22 points, 12.7 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game on 61.5% shooting. field.

Finally, after testing the waters for this upcoming draft, Ryan Kalkbrenner finally decided to return to Creighton for his fifth season. He averaged 17 points, 7.6 rebounds and 3.1 blocks per game last season for the Bluejays. He also qualified for the Sophomore Productive Inquiry last season, which has a 70% “stick” rate.

Three players qualified for the Productive Junior Query last season: DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter and Jonathan Mogbo.

Holmes had a stellar junior season for Dayton, averaging 20 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.1 blocks per game. Perhaps most importantly, the Dayton big man’s ability to stretch the floor took a leap last season. He went from making 31.6% of his three-pointers (19 attempts) and 67% of his free throw attempts in his second season to shooting 71.3% from the free throw line and 38.6% from the free throw line. deep this season in 83 attempts. Holmes II also qualified for the Productive Young Athlete check in his first season, which he has a “stick” rate of 78%. Holmes is currently projected as a late second-round pick, but has as much chance as anyone to outperform his draft stock.

Carter is a 6-foot-3 guard who averaged 19.7 points, 3.6 assists (23.3 assist percentage), 8.7 rebounds, 1.8 steals (2.9 steal percentage) and one block per game. game (2.8 block percentage) last season for Providence. He made 65.2% of his attempts at the rim (181 attempts), 37.7% of his 3-point attempts (223 attempts) and 75% of his attempts at the free throw line last season. Lastly, Carter was unassisted on an impressive 58% of his field goals this season. He is currently projected to be selected between picks 15 and 20.

Lastly, Mogbo is 6-foot-7 and averaged 14.2 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per game last season in San Francisco. He also posted a 14.5 offensive rebounding percentage, a 29.3 defensive rebounding percentage, a 24.5 assist percentage, a 3.2 steal percentage, and a 3.5 block percentage. Lastly, Mogbo has converted 74.1% of his attempts at the rim this season and 31.3% on 2-pointers outside the rim. He is currently a projected late second round pick.

One player who got the Productive Junior Query right and still needs to pay attention in college: Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Players from this draft class who have accessed the Junior Productive Consultation in the past: Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes II, Devin Carter and Jonathan Mogbo.

Conclusion: Why is it useful?

He Junior Productive Consultation It is best used when trying to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets all four criteria during the season, then the player is worth investigating. Similarly, if you’re considering a player with a second-round pick (or even a first-round pick in the case of Devin Carter) who met the Junior Productive Inquiry, it may be a comfort that 66% of players meet the same criteria. play more than five seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to keep in mind since only 27% of second-round picks in NBA Drafts from 1990 to 2017 ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career 10 to 24 minutes per game. either More than 4000 minutes of career in the NBA. Regardless, the PJQ The query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles, and medical information when evaluating a potential client.

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