Seasonal forecast June-September 2024: Above-normal rainfall and temperatures forecast across most of the Greater Horn of Africa – Somalia

twenty-one May 2024, Juba, South Sudan: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) issued the seasonal forecast for June to September 2024 indicating an increased probability of above-normal rainfall over most of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Areas expected to experience these above-normal conditions include Djibouti, Eritrea, central and northern Ethiopia, western and coastal Kenya, much of Uganda, South Sudan and Sudan. On the other hand, parts of northern Somalia, isolated areas of western Ethiopia and northwestern South Sudan are expected to experience drier than normal conditions. Weather patterns in the JJAS 2024 period closely resemble those of 1998 and 2010, both of which experienced wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the region.

An early or normal onset is expected in several parts of the region, including central and northern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and South Sudan. However, their emergence is likely to be delayed in Djibouti, parts of eastern and western Ethiopia, central and western Sudan, and southern South Sudan.

The temperature forecast shows a probability of warmer than normal conditions across the region, particularly in northern Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania.

Dr. Guleid Artan, director of ICPAC, noted that “The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is a region highly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, which poses significant challenges to the resilience of our communities. “The wetter than normal conditions forecast for June to September 2024 reflect the patterns of 1998 and 2010, highlighting the level of impact, especially for South Sudan and Sudan, which may experience the impacts of flooding.”

“As we observe these recurring extreme weather events, it is important to recognize the critical role played by early warning systems that serve as key preparedness instruments and guide us through climate change. variability. Through our operations, ICPAC continues to provide actionable climate information that is relevant and key to Early Action.” he added.

In accordance with the guidelines and recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization, ICPAC has adopted an objective seasonal forecasting method to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa. Initialized May 2024 seasonal forecasts from 9 Global Production Centers (GPCs) were used and processed to develop the seasonal climate outlook for June to September 2024. The seasonal forecasts and their hindcast data were analyzed to provide a probabilistic forecast indicating the probability of above normal, normal or below normal precipitation.

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Note to editors:

The 67th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF67) was convened as a hybrid event on 21 May 2024 by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC). The forum was organized in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the entire region, together with other partners, with the main objective of issuing the seasonal forecast from June to September 2024. We encourage users of climate and media information communications to consult our weekly publications and monthly updates of the forecasted season: www.icpac.net. For reduced information, contact the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.

GHACOF 67 Technical Statement

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