SNP slumps in new general election poll as Scottish Labor on course for historic victory

A new poll has revealed that the Labor Party is on course for a landslide general election victory over the SNP in Scotland.

The poll shows that the nationalists lost more than 30 constituencies and Anas Sarwar’s party soared to 28 seats. Sarwar and UK Labor leader Keir Starmer also have better approval ratings than Prime Minister John Swinney.




The SNP has dominated elections in Scotland for more than a decade and swept the 2019 Westminster election. They won 48 seats, while Labor returned Ian Murray as its sole MP.

A new Survation poll, commissioned by advisory firm True North, shows Scotland is heading for an electoral earthquake.

According to the results, 36 percent of Scots will vote for the Labor Party in the election, and 32 percent will vote for the SNP.

The poll shows the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats winning 17 per cent and nine per cent respectively. According to these figures, the SNP would be reduced to 16 MPs, while the Labor Party would obtain 28, its highest total since 2010.

The Survation poll backs up other snapshots showing Labor on course to take first place in Scotland.

Although the Holyrood elections are two years away, the survey also shows that Labor could replace the SNP as the largest party in Edinburgh. A four-point lead for Labor in the regional list vote would give them 48 seats to 42 for the SNP.

In these circumstances, Labor would be 17 seats away from a majority. Support for independence remains at 45% almost a decade after the 2014 referendum.

According to the poll, Sir Keir Starmer is the most popular leader of a Westminster party in Scotland, with a net favorability rating of +3%. Sarwar stood at -3% and Swinney at -7%.

Fergus Mutch, managing partner at True North, said: “With five long weeks of campaigning ahead, it is very much a Labor election to lose.

“These figures suggest that they are prepared to annul around twenty seats held by the SNP in the central belt of Scotland and return the majority of MPs to Westminster. With the Labor Party building momentum across the UK, a powerful response will be required from any party seeking to stop this monster.

“That said, the difference in vote share between Labor and the SNP remains quite marginal, and these figures are tighter than other polls in recent weeks suggest. “The SNP will be hopeful that with new leadership they can find a renewed purpose that can at least halt the projected losses, if not completely turn the situation around.”

Polling expert Sir John Curtice said: “The fallout from Humza Yousaf’s termination of the Bute House Agreement has allowed the SNP to install a slightly less unpopular leader in John Swinney.

“However, Mr Swinney’s rating is well below that enjoyed by Nicola Sturgeon before she resigned as SNP president last year, and Mr Yousaf’s fall has not provided an immediate remedy to the SNP’s electoral difficulties.

“Rather, the consequences of the termination of the Bute House Agreement have further weakened the SNP’s hold on the loyalties of Scottish voters. The party’s support for Westminster is four points below where it was at the start of the year. Less than two in three of those who would vote Yes in an independence referendum are currently willing to vote for the party.

“As a result, Labor now has a clear lead in voting intentions in Westminster for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.

“As the general election campaign progresses, the SNP faces the prospect of suffering serious losses in early July and therefore the potential loss of its coveted status as the third largest party in Westminster. “The party urgently needs to try to persuade Yes supporters to return to the party fold.”

SNP deputy leader Keith Brown MSP: “We need to get rid of the Conservative government. The way to do that in Scotland is to vote for the SNP because we are the main rivals in all the seats the Conservatives hold.

“Austerity, Brexit and the cost of living crisis – all imposed on Scotland by Westminster – have driven up household costs, hit the economy hard and cut the money available to spend on the NHS. In this election, vote SNP to put Scotland’s interests first.”

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